DETERMINANT MARKET STUDY · THE DELIVERABLE · CONFIDENTIAL · EVIDENCE STAGE

Where DETERMINANT plays next: six doors, priced and screened

The decision document for the August business plan workshop. Every dashed box is research to land; every chip tracks what the map's data already supports. The interactive map is the evidence appendix.
TEMPLATE 17 JULY · PRICES + INTERNAL FINANCIALS LOADED 20 JULY · MEMO TO DEE BY 31 JULY
00

Data readiness: what the doors can already prove, and what is still missing

Computed live from the map's brand records each time this page loads. A door is READY when its exemplar brands carry the core cells (shirt take-home price, gross margin, scale, growth) plus the dive outputs (years to proof, APAC survival, core competency). Fill data in the map's table view, republish, and this board updates.

DOOR
STATE
MISSING EVIDENCE
LANDED 20 JUL · DETERMINANT INTERNAL FINANCIALS (202606 REPORTS, ALL THREE BOOKS)
The spread is answered. DETERMINANT CN: gross margin 66.9% (up 4pp on FY2025), selling ratio 55.1% of sales (channel operating cost 31.0 + branding and marketing 24.1), spread 11.8, Youngor-class. The mix is inverted against the D2 proof brand: DET media ~24% / physical ~19.5% vs 比音勒芬 4.9 / 29.2. Group spread -15.8 after global branding (22.5% of group sales) and APAC losses. CN brand contribution is +12.4% before group costs and June CN was near breakeven: the China engine is healing while running the wrong mechanism. Still open: price architecture detail, CRM repurchase rate.
01

Executive verdict

TO FILL · AFTER DOORS ARE PRICED AND SCREENED · GATED ON THE 21 JULY SESSION WITH DEE
One paragraph: which door DETERMINANT should walk through, at what tier in each market, what it costs in that door's own currency, and the first three consequences for the 3-year plan (marketing envelope, channel mix, geographic focus). If no door clears the screen, the verdict states the alternative finding: the binding problem is execution and underpricing, not position.
02

The field: at each price, who holds margin, and by what mechanism

226 of 234 price cells are now real (hand-collected by Alfred, 19-20 July) plus fourteen filing gross margins. Three facts organize the field. Ticket prices in the old-school tier are fiction: Youngor holds 44% of ticket, SeptWolves 37%, Navigare's tee 11%. The fiction is confined below 350: every brand whose real shirt price sits above 350 holds 70-100% of ticket, and most hold 85-100. The market splits cleanly at one price line: below it, tickets are stage props; above it, price integrity is universal. And the old-school nationals' real prices collapse onto DETERMINANT's: JoeOne 282, SeptWolves 224, Youngor 344 against DET's 318.

Band (real take-home, RMB)Who lives hereWhat it proves
Volume floor · 0-180HLA 62-168, LILANZ 139-169, SeptWolves polo 156, MUJI 178Deep-discount reality; mostly sold off fiction tickets
Collapsed tier · 180-350Old-school real prices, factory-directs (衬衫老罗 229, 霞湖世家 238), DETERMINANT 198-318Where money actually changes hands; tickets pretend 400-1280
White space · 350-620KKRS 388, DUTTMOKN 466, Zara 499, GFOR 594, Nice Rice 598 (all real); Gremade 679 sits just above the edgeThinly held, all holding 85-100%. Four of the six residents are 打版 factories. The elevation crossing; nobody discounts to serve it
Premium hold · 620-900比音勒芬 646-769, Kolon 711, Lululemon 750, Descente 790, 欧定 790Every resident holds 87-100% of ticket; price integrity is the entry fee
Aspirational · 900+Suit Supply 941, Kolon 952, Lululemon 1180, PYE 1242, Hugo Boss 1250, Arc'teryx 1600, Theory 1650, Ralph Lauren 1790, Descente 2190, ICICLE 2846Near-universal full price; Brooks Brothers (903 at 70% hold) the lone discounter above 350

A seventh mechanism, added 21 July. The 打版 factories were first loaded under product authority, alongside 比音勒芬. The prices show they are not running that model: their design credibility is rented rather than built, and their cost base is a factory rather than a margin. They now carry their own mechanism on the map, "rented design / factory cost", which makes door D5 the only door running on two distinct mechanisms. It also corrects the D2 lane, whose price span had been reading 388-2846 when the true focused-premium range is 769-2846. As of 21 July the segment carries its own door, D6, because it points up-market into the white space while D5 factory-direct prices at or below the current tier. Every mechanism is now exactly one door, with one deliberate exception: brand world and media is real in the market and not available at DETERMINANT margin, so it stays a mechanism without a door.

Band edges locked 20 July on the two empty gaps in the real-price data (344-444 and 600-640). Rationale recorded in the map schema; edges move only if new real prices fill a gap.

SNAPSHOT SLOT · MAP PRESET 1 (THE MARGIN FIELD) · READY TO CAPTURE
DETERMINANT at 66.9% gross margin and 318 real take-home, inside the collapsed tier; the mechanisms that clear its margin all live above the white space. Market-size per band still open (M8 carve).
09

One brand, two businesses: DETERMINANT China vs DETERMINANT APAC

Same axes, two dots, and the internal numbers now measure the distance. China: content-and-e-commerce brand, GM 66.9%, brand contribution +12.4% before group costs, June near breakeven, average selling price +7%. APAC: physical retail brand, HIGHER margin (72.6% blended, HK offline 74.3, SG 76.0) but negative everywhere: HK contribution -9.6%, SG -39%, VN -20%. The higher-margin business loses money; the lower-margin business is healing. Add intentional international tiering (HK shirt 398 HKD vs SG 100 SGD) and "one brand, one model, one message" is a re-unification project with a cost line, not a statement of fact.

SNAPSHOT SLOT · DET CN vs DET APAC ON IDENTICAL AXES · DATA IN HAND
Both dots now carry real GM, real prices, real contribution. The chosen door answers: which of the two businesses is the model, and what happens to the other one. The APAC survival column of the screen runs on these numbers.
10

The screen: six doors, five numbers each

Auto-filled cells pull from the map's dive records as they land (years to proof, APAC survival, core competency). Grey italic = to fill by the dive research. The verdict row is judgment and stays human.

DoorGM% the model needsCost, in its own currencyYears to proofAPAC survivalCan DETERMINANT run it
11

Recommendation and consequences

TO FILL · THE M12 SCENARIOS · WITH WILKIE, POST-SCREEN
Two to three positioning scenarios on the surviving doors, each with channel math: marketing-spend envelope, channel mix, store count, geographic focus (GBA vs broader China, and the ambassador economics). This is what the workshop debates.
TO FILL · THE MUSE HANDOFF
One paragraph: which brand characters the chosen door permits. Constraint set for the Q2 muse exercise; the character itself is not chosen here.